Working papers in high school systems
The working papers, research projects, theses and dissertations listed are being prepared for publication.
A hybrid simulation analysis of policy homogeneity in South African public high school systems
2024, work in progress
South Africa has one of the highest measures of economic inequality and one of the worst performing basic education systems in the world. For every 100 learners who enrol for Grade 1, 50 will be lost from the system before Grade 12 (as learners mostly exit in Grades 10 and 11), 40 will matriculate from Grade 12 and 12 will qualify to enrol into university. Only 4 will eventually graduate with a bachelor’s degree. Of 39 countries surveyed in 2021 by OECD, South Africa had the highest percentage (i.e., 46.1%) of young adults who were neither employed nor enrolled in formal education or training. In 2021 the DHET estimated that less than a third of South African adults (i.e., 32.5%) held NSCs. In light of South Africa’s sordid past the country’s education system has experienced many challenges and the wealthiest 20% of learners and the poorest 80% of learners are still marked by considerable and statistically significant differences in academic performance. This bimodality evident in high school outcomes makes it impossible to define the “average” learner.
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In this study, simulation modelling will be used to analyse and compare the academic achievement of learners with disparate sets of characteristics. These learners are enrolled into a single education system founded on the assumption that broad policies for the heterogenous average learner could adequately support each individual. By means of specifically agent-based and system dynamics simulation modelling this study aims to provide insight as to how one overarching system supports or fails different classifications of learners. It will provide recommendations for ways in which policies may be customised to serve a learner body as a granular collection instead of a homogenous whole. Industrial engineering principles and tools will be used to formulate the engineering solution which will then validated by means of a case study.
Analysing causality in the South African public high school system
2023, work in progress
The causal mapping of the High School Model requires refinement and validation to confirm that the mapping includes the necessary factors - by not merely identifying factors from literature, but also through quantitative and qualitative approaches that takes the South African context into consideration. The goal of this study is to increase confidence in the causal mapping of the factors that effect learner progression from Grade 8 to Grade 12 in the South African public high school system.
Quantitative confidence may be achieved through thorough statistical analysis of a national survey dataset describing the system. Qualitative confidence may be achieved through application of the Qualitative Impact Protocol (QuIP) through natural language processing of narrative reports.
The aim of this research is to identify which factors in the South African education system must be included in a valid causal mapping of the system, to determine the causal links between these factors and to determine the direction and magnitude of causality with adequate confidence. The research question is then which factors contribute to a learner successfully reaching the end of Grade 12 specifically in the general case for a public high school in the Western Cape to sit for the NSC examination given South Africa’s dysfunctional basic education system and high learner attrition?
Using machine learning and agent-based simulation to predict learner progress for the South African high school education system
2024
The South African high school education system faces numerous challenges, including high dropout rates and unequal educational outcomes, calling for innovative methods to analyse and address these problems. This study employs an integrated approach that merges machine learning and agent-based modelling to simulate learner progression in public high schools, illuminating the critical factors that influence educational outcomes. Using data from the 2019 General Household Survey in South Africa, factor analysis is first conducted to identify and quantify the principal characteristics defining learners. These features then train an XGBoost machine learning model, which is integrated within an agent-based framework to simulate learner progression from Grades 8 to Grade 12. Validating the model against the Learner Unit Record Information and Tracking System dataset resulted in a root square error of 2.95%, which is indicative of the model's ability to predict learner progression. Overall, the model represents a significant advancement in the field of educational simulation, serving as a practical tool for schools to analyse and improve learner outcomes through analytical decision-making.
The impact of pandemic control on the High School Model
2022, work in progress
A systems perspective on education systems design and policy: The High School Model
2020
The South African education system is in crisis. On average, South Africa has the worst education system of all middle-income countries and perform worse than many lower-income African countries. The South African Department of Basic Education released an action plan with 27 goals towards the realization of a functional system by 2030. Two of these goals are considered priority: Improve the average performance of Grade 9 learners in mathematics and ensure that all children remain effectively enrolled in school at least up to the year in which they turn 15. This project aims to build a system dynamics simulation model with which to analyze the impact of this goal on the Western Cape high school system. In so doing we may discover the feedback loops and possible unintended consequences of the goal that intuitively appears helpful but may prove to be unhelpful.
