Working papers in higher learning systems
The working papers, research projects, theses and dissertations listed are being prepared for publication.
2023
Stellenbosch University aims to be one of the leading research institutions on the African continent. High school matriculants (both locally and internationally) can apply to the university with the hope of graduating through one of its ten faculties. The selection of students for enrolment
into a degree programme in the Economic Management Sciences Faculty is based on academic merit.
For a student to progress to the each academic year, they must obtain the minimum academic credits required to continue. The aim of this research is to design and implement a hybrid simulation model of student progression using agent-based and systems dynamics modelling. This
model is applied to analyse graduation success in the Faculty.
Following the validation of the hybridised student progression model, four intervention scenarios are tested for three degree programmes to increase the number of minimum time graduates. These intervention scenarios focus on a decrease on the influence of the perception of degree difficulty on graduate success, an increase in admission requirements, an increase in student engagement, and a combination approach where all three interventions scenarios are implemented. In the calibrated model for Mathematical Sciences students it results that they are better assisted
through higher selection criteria while Management and Economic Sciences students are better assisted through higher engagement.
Both the calibrated and uncalibrated models are analysed to control for the bias of overfitting.
In the non-calibrated model, all students appear to be better assisted through the decreased perception of degree difficulty. The model use is illustrated by means of this specific case study, but it is able to assist decision support in multiple contexts wherever graduation success is a metric of interest.
A systems perspective on teacher training in South Africa
2020
The South African education system is in crisis. Three main problems are identified within the South African school teacher population. Firstly there are not enough teachers to cater for the needs of the current learner population. Secondly, the current population of teachers is of a low quality and does not all meet the basic requirements of a teacher. Finally, the aging current population of teachers is a big threat as a large portion of this population will retire soon. With this in mind, a research question can be formed: which factors contribute to the current state of the teacher population and which interventions are most effective to improve it? A system dynamics module is presented with which to analyse the factors impacting the success of teacher training at tertiary institutions in South Africa.
2019
Youth unemployment in South Africa is reported to be of the highest in the world, and continues to rise with every passing year. The most recent reports show the current youth unemployment to be 56.4%. Discrepancies between different education groups are observed in the labour market such that those with a higher education level, specifically university graduates, are more likely to be employed compared to those with a different education background. National datasets provide evidence of a higher enrolment rate into universities compared to technical and vocational education and training colleges as these are considered a lower quality education qualification compared to that from a university. In this project, the effect of channelling low performing learners from Grades 10, 11 and 12 into trade qualification enrolment on the youth employment rate is analysed by taking a system dynamics modelling approach. Several factors such as South Africa's poverty level, average class size and average drop-out rates were considered during the modelling process. These values were tested during model verification and validation. It was found that out of poverty, class size, trade education enrolment rate, graduation rate and employment rate, the system was most sensitive to changes in class size. Four interventions were performed of which increasing the enrolment rate for trade qualification combined with ensuring a high graduation rate showed to be most effective in raising youth employment to up to 63% during the forecast period.
